It is already the last day of July. Do you think time moves more quickly as you get older or is it the fact that as each day passes, the day itself is a smaller percentage of the time you have been on the Earth? Sorry to start the day with philosophical debate but how on earth is it already the end of July when I am sure Christmas was only a couple of weeks ago.
Anyway, we certainly are on the last day of a month and that is generally a signal for increased volatility as traders and investors square their books by selling back whatever it was they bought and where many companies settle invoices and debts. I predict a riot.........well quoting the Kaiser Chiefs may be overstating it but excitement is very likely.
Yesterday set the scene with the news I reported in yesterday’s report but also slightly improved US employment data which showed the lowest weekly jobless claims level since January. We also heard that Eurozone consumer confidence improved but that was counterbalanced by weaker EU retail sales and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) waded in with their view that Eurozone interest rates would be on hold for quite some time. The Euro didn’t really react to any of this and still trades in a narrow range against the Pound, US Dollar and Japanese Yen.
Sterling though has what they call a slightly ‘bid tone’ to it. In other words, there appear to be more Sterling buyers than sellers and it is gaining strength as I write. The Pound was undoubtedly helped by the Gfk consumer confidence report, published overnight, which held at its highest level since April 2008, reinforcing the view that the UK recession may be starting to stop. I don’t think anyone is brave enough to say the resurgence has begun but a lack of economic shrinkage is a good thing. The pace at which it is strengthening is akin to that of grass growing but maybe today’s market conditions will add a bit of miracle grow to that process.
The other data released overnight was a barrage of numbers from Japan but none of it seems to have troubled traders and the Japanese Yen is pretty well unchanged this morning.
Today’ data has the potential to be market moving; we will get economic growth data from Canada and America and whilst a slightly encouraging figure is expected from Canada, the USA ought to reflect another contraction, bringing the annualised decline of the US economy down by 3.5%. It’s better than Britain but worse than the American’s would wish and that may, oddly enough, strengthen the US Dollar. Certainly if the US economy shrank by a greater sum, the USD will get stronger due to investors seeking sanctuary in the US Treasury market. And if that happens, the recent recipients of all this risk-friendly investment money will weaken. That includes the Australasian Dollars and so a lesser degree, the Euro. It may also weaken Sterling so the overall effect will be more muted than it might have been.
And finally, with the third Ashes test underway and Australia looking rather good in their first innings, as an Englishman, I just hope the Aussie batsmen don’t get all inspired and impassioned by the story of a gnome rescue back in Australia. After the death of a gnome collector in Cootamundra, a rescue mission was mounted to secure the future of her 1,500 gnome collection and make sure they weren’t just dumped. The "Gnome Master" David Cook, of the Australian Gnome Convention (yes there is one) arranged a lorry and volunteers to collect the little fellers and transport them to new happy homes where they can fish, push wheelbarrows and carry rakes and stuff in happiness. They will however be reunited for the sixth annual gnome convention which takes place in Glenbrook next January. Don’t bother; I have checked and all the hotel rooms are already sold out. Drat.
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Saturday, August 1, 2009
Forex Daily Report
Market comment
We have mentioned for some time that we expected the S&P rally to reach 1000 to 1020 before a pullback. Getting fairly close to this level now and we favor now a correction lower. Expect to see more problems during the fall, with banks needing capital injections and slow growth. S&P 500 futures closed on the lows yesterday, after losing quite a bit of ground last hour or so. Quite normal since probably some players elected to close long positions ahead of today’s important US GDP data out at 14:30 CET. We see this as the key data of the week and any disappointment could cause a decent correction on the recent uptrend in the equity markets. Of course a strong figure could take it higher as well, but we see the risk’s to be more to the downside at this stage. Crude oil all over the place last two days, as the bearish inventory data sent Crude tumbling Wednesday, only to see it recover all the losses yesterday as increased risk appetite took Crude oil back up towards the 67 USD per barrel mark. Seems like Crude is still dominantly driven by risk appetite, but with fundamental impulses like we saw Wednesday play in as well. We expect crude to hold up in a decent way as long as the equity markets continue to trade up wards and we keep an eye on 970 in S&P 500 futures as a potential pivot point. Summing things up, pretty much looks like equities will dictate price action in most markets over the next few months, with the recent correlation staying in focus.
Technical’s
Euro: Rejected at 1.43 Wednesday, looks like more of the 1.37 to 1.4340 range. Up trend line from 22 April 2009 (1.4080) was broken Wednesday, which halted the recent uptrend. The key uptrend line from start of March this year is coming in at 1.3768 this morning, which is key support to hold to keep potential for a break higher.
Cable: Weak UK data out lately that reinforce our view that UK will struggle to recover in the near term. We still favor sell rallies below 1.6586 today. We would not be surprised to see a move back down to at least the rising trend line (coming in at 1.6196 today). Still long term trend up above this rising trend line at 1.6246.
USDJPY: Solid downtrend since start of April, with falling trend line coming in at 96.62 today. The recent up move it looking to test this falling trend line as long as the short term rising support is intact, meaning holding above 94.46 today. Still don’t see JPY doing well on its own going forward due to weak Japanese fundamentals and they certainly don’t want a strong JPY since Japan is largely dependent on exports.
Swissy: Same outlook as last days, sideways range with key levels 1.06 and 1.1030. Favor trading range until proven wrong and stop reverse on break out.
AUDUSD: Looks like a failure at 0.8270 Wednesday , but found good support just below the0.8144 support level and back above 0.8200 yesterday. High correlation between S&P 500 vs. AUDUSD and we think the direction will come once again from S&P today. Looks like the RBA will raise rates sooner rather than later on improved economic outlook = supportive for AUD.
USDCAD: The bounce off the 1.07 handle reached high of 1.0933 Wednesday and back down since. Key points today are: 1.0751 and 1.0933
EURJPY: Looks bullish above key 132.80 support level.
GBPJPY : We think the risk appetite factor will be the main driver for this cross even though we think GBP will struggle vs. other European currencies next few months. 160 remains key resistance with 153.80 key support.
AUDJPY: Dip yesterday stayed well above the key 76.16 support level, bullish above this level for a test of 80.50.
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
We have mentioned for some time that we expected the S&P rally to reach 1000 to 1020 before a pullback. Getting fairly close to this level now and we favor now a correction lower. Expect to see more problems during the fall, with banks needing capital injections and slow growth. S&P 500 futures closed on the lows yesterday, after losing quite a bit of ground last hour or so. Quite normal since probably some players elected to close long positions ahead of today’s important US GDP data out at 14:30 CET. We see this as the key data of the week and any disappointment could cause a decent correction on the recent uptrend in the equity markets. Of course a strong figure could take it higher as well, but we see the risk’s to be more to the downside at this stage. Crude oil all over the place last two days, as the bearish inventory data sent Crude tumbling Wednesday, only to see it recover all the losses yesterday as increased risk appetite took Crude oil back up towards the 67 USD per barrel mark. Seems like Crude is still dominantly driven by risk appetite, but with fundamental impulses like we saw Wednesday play in as well. We expect crude to hold up in a decent way as long as the equity markets continue to trade up wards and we keep an eye on 970 in S&P 500 futures as a potential pivot point. Summing things up, pretty much looks like equities will dictate price action in most markets over the next few months, with the recent correlation staying in focus.
Technical’s
Euro: Rejected at 1.43 Wednesday, looks like more of the 1.37 to 1.4340 range. Up trend line from 22 April 2009 (1.4080) was broken Wednesday, which halted the recent uptrend. The key uptrend line from start of March this year is coming in at 1.3768 this morning, which is key support to hold to keep potential for a break higher.
Cable: Weak UK data out lately that reinforce our view that UK will struggle to recover in the near term. We still favor sell rallies below 1.6586 today. We would not be surprised to see a move back down to at least the rising trend line (coming in at 1.6196 today). Still long term trend up above this rising trend line at 1.6246.
USDJPY: Solid downtrend since start of April, with falling trend line coming in at 96.62 today. The recent up move it looking to test this falling trend line as long as the short term rising support is intact, meaning holding above 94.46 today. Still don’t see JPY doing well on its own going forward due to weak Japanese fundamentals and they certainly don’t want a strong JPY since Japan is largely dependent on exports.
Swissy: Same outlook as last days, sideways range with key levels 1.06 and 1.1030. Favor trading range until proven wrong and stop reverse on break out.
AUDUSD: Looks like a failure at 0.8270 Wednesday , but found good support just below the0.8144 support level and back above 0.8200 yesterday. High correlation between S&P 500 vs. AUDUSD and we think the direction will come once again from S&P today. Looks like the RBA will raise rates sooner rather than later on improved economic outlook = supportive for AUD.
USDCAD: The bounce off the 1.07 handle reached high of 1.0933 Wednesday and back down since. Key points today are: 1.0751 and 1.0933
EURJPY: Looks bullish above key 132.80 support level.
GBPJPY : We think the risk appetite factor will be the main driver for this cross even though we think GBP will struggle vs. other European currencies next few months. 160 remains key resistance with 153.80 key support.
AUDJPY: Dip yesterday stayed well above the key 76.16 support level, bullish above this level for a test of 80.50.
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
FX Trading – Oil Demagoguery Delayed
It’s a sad week for the usual demagogues in the US congress (sorry for the redundancy), as global oil companies are reporting lousy earnings. I’m sure oil execs were on the docket for demonizing—all sorts of anti-capitalist screeds planned—as our stalwart leaders mugged for the camera and showed compassion and outrage for the “little guy.”
Here’s an example of what we likely will miss on our telly next week: Cut to close up of typical lawyer congress person who has never held a real job in the private sector or met a payroll: “How dare you nasty global oil companies employ hundreds of thousands of people and risk billions of dollars in private capital in the most inhospitable places across the globe, then turn around and power our economies with your product and then profit from it—it is an outrage. It is downright obscene.” And I’m sure all types of diatribes utilizing the new PC-word of the year “green,” would have ensued.
The fact we will miss this charade proves there must be a higher power watching over us. But sadly, it’s likely sometime in the future oil profit demagoguery will be back on the docket, that’s of course assumes global demand ever recovers.
And lack of global demand was the message consistently shared by the oil daemons (conspiracy?). It was an equal opportunity profit tumble this week for BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Exxon. Each company relayed similar sentiment: there is little demand for oil out there in the real world, and lots of supply. You wouldn’t think that was the case looking at the run up in oil prices, and other markets based on the rationale of the “end of the recession.” But markets discount. And even better, profitable trends are created by players who often don’t want the facts to get in the way of exploitable price momentum; the Zen of markets.
Those juicy multi-asset class trends just keep on giving. The standard formula: strong oil prices, strong stock prices, and a weak dollar. Speculative capital flow is trend following, engendered initially by some perception of fundamentals, which was likely “green shoots” and led by a big boost in Chinese GDP (whether force-fed or not); but the longer the trend endures, the more detached from fundamentals it becomes. Unfortunately, no one knows when or where these things end until they are given the illusive gift of hindsight.
Oil vs. Emerging Market Stocks vs. US$ Index Daily:
Mr. Market is bashing the buck a bit again this fine Friday morning. Many currencies are testing key breakout levels. And at 8:30 a.m. we get a look at US GDP for the second quarter. A better than expected number suggests the trend is your friend. But then again, that’s why they call them markets.
Here’s an example of what we likely will miss on our telly next week: Cut to close up of typical lawyer congress person who has never held a real job in the private sector or met a payroll: “How dare you nasty global oil companies employ hundreds of thousands of people and risk billions of dollars in private capital in the most inhospitable places across the globe, then turn around and power our economies with your product and then profit from it—it is an outrage. It is downright obscene.” And I’m sure all types of diatribes utilizing the new PC-word of the year “green,” would have ensued.
The fact we will miss this charade proves there must be a higher power watching over us. But sadly, it’s likely sometime in the future oil profit demagoguery will be back on the docket, that’s of course assumes global demand ever recovers.
And lack of global demand was the message consistently shared by the oil daemons (conspiracy?). It was an equal opportunity profit tumble this week for BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Exxon. Each company relayed similar sentiment: there is little demand for oil out there in the real world, and lots of supply. You wouldn’t think that was the case looking at the run up in oil prices, and other markets based on the rationale of the “end of the recession.” But markets discount. And even better, profitable trends are created by players who often don’t want the facts to get in the way of exploitable price momentum; the Zen of markets.
Those juicy multi-asset class trends just keep on giving. The standard formula: strong oil prices, strong stock prices, and a weak dollar. Speculative capital flow is trend following, engendered initially by some perception of fundamentals, which was likely “green shoots” and led by a big boost in Chinese GDP (whether force-fed or not); but the longer the trend endures, the more detached from fundamentals it becomes. Unfortunately, no one knows when or where these things end until they are given the illusive gift of hindsight.
Oil vs. Emerging Market Stocks vs. US$ Index Daily:
Mr. Market is bashing the buck a bit again this fine Friday morning. Many currencies are testing key breakout levels. And at 8:30 a.m. we get a look at US GDP for the second quarter. A better than expected number suggests the trend is your friend. But then again, that’s why they call them markets.
European Market Update: Euro-Zone June unemployment beats estimates, but remains at decade high; Sweden's GDP moves out of negative territory
** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (GE) German Jun Nominal Wholesale Sales Y/Y: -9.1%; Real Wholesale Sales Y/Y: -17.2%
- (SP) Spain May Current Account: -€4.99B v -€3.5B prior
- (CZ) Jun Preliminary Industrial output Y/Y: -12.3% v -17.0%e
- (TH) Thailand Jun Total Trade Balance: $939M v $2.3B prior; Current Account: $477.0M v $783Me
- (TH) Thailand Jun Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -7.8% v -9.5%e
- (SW) Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -6.2% v -6.7%e
- (NO) Norway May AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.2%e
- (NO) Norway Jun Credit Indicator Growth: 6.5% v 7.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jun PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -7.2% v -7.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Gov't Monthly Budget: -10.6B v -10.4B prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jul CPI estimate: -0.6% v -0.4%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jun Unemployment: 9.4% v 9.7%e, highest level since May 1999
- (IT) Italy Jul Preliminary CPI (NIC incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jul Preliminary CPI (EU Harmonized) M/M: -1.2% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.4%e
- (SZ) Swiss Jul KOF Leading Indicator: -0.99v -1.45e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities news overnight: In equities: Equity markets in Europe entered the last trading day of July on a negative footing. This position was in disregard to yesterday's positive run and the similar sentiments in NY and Asia. End of the month flows were joined with continued equity pressure following a further corporate earnings flow. Today's earnings included large cap names: British Airways [BAY.UK], Air France [AF.FR], Anglo American [AAL.UK], Vedanta [VED.UK], ENEL [ENEL.IT], ENI [ENI.IT], Total [FP.FR], Michelin [ML.FR] and Lafarge [LG.FR]. Earnings sentiment again proved mixed with the heavy oil names disappointing and trading to the downside. While both BA and Air France reported below expectations, continued losses seen at Air France drove those shares lower while BA traded higher. Guidance out of Lafarge, lowering its cement volume output for 2009, had bearish effects for the broad sector as the effects of lower construction and building projects rippled through the market. Following the equity open, shares pushed higher, through the unchanged mark and to their best trading range levels by 3:30EST. This movement was sharply cut short by better than expected preliminary Q2 GDP out of Sweden (the corresponding effect having a negative pull on the EUR/SEK cross). Markets looked ready to push higher at 5:00EST following the release of better than expected Euro-zone unemployment numbers, but were limited by a larger than expected decline in Euro-zone CPI. With a shortened US earnings list expected in the NY morning, markets have already begun to position themselves for the US advanced Q2 GDP release, seen at 8:30EST.
-In individual equities: Air France [AF.FR] Reports Q1 Net loss €426M v loss €202Me, Rev €5.2B v €6.5B y/y. Q1 capacity -4.7%, Load factor at 79.4% v 80.3% y/y. || Michelin [ML.FR] Reports H1 Net loss €119.0M v loss €273.3Me, Rev €7.13B v €7.1Be. || AngloAmerican [AAL.UK] Reports H1 underling Net $1.1B v $1.8Be, Rev $11.1B v $10.4Be. Net debt of $11.3 billion at 30 June 2009. || Total [FP.FR] Reports Q2 Net €1.7B v €1.7Be, R €31.4B v €27.2Be. Q2 Oil and Gas output 2.18M bpd (-7.3% y/y). || Lafarge [LG.FR] Reports Q2 Net €344M v €369Me, Rev €4.36B v €4.5Be. Based on the market situations observed in the second quarter, we have updated our outlook on volumes for the full year 2009. While the rate of decline is expected to slow in the second half of the year as compared to the first half, annual cement volumes in Lafarge's markets are expected to be down -4% to -8% overall, with significant differences between markets. || Continental [CON.GE] Supervisory board approves plans for capital increase of up to €1.5B, begins financing talks with creditors. || ENEL [ENEL.IT] Reports H1 Net €3.52B v €3.0Be, EBITDA €7.94B v €7.7Be. || ENI [ENI.IT] Reports Q2 Adj Net Profit €900M v €938Me, EBIT €2.55B v €2.5Be. ||
- Speakers: Former MOF official Sakakibara commented that opposition DPJ Bureaucrats would likely to keep overseeing FX policy if elected into power. Comments in response to the DPJ''s main campaign pledges to turn Japan's deeply entrenched, bureaucracy-led policy-making process into one led more by politicians. || Irish Fin Min Lenihan commented that Ireland had an approximate figure of discount on loans to be taken over by 'bad banks' || Chinese Fin Ministry noted that it would adopt a US style 3 and 9 month bill auction. China previously had a mixed bid system || EU approved German state toxic asset relief program for its banking system
-In Currencies: The USD managed to recover from its Asian lows but remained mixed in its overall tone against the major pairs ahead of the US GDP data later today. Despite yesterday's IMF comment about the Euro being 'overvalued' the EUR/USD hovering around the 1.41 area for the bulk of the session today and the trend continues to post higher lows and thus potentially higher highs over the next few weeks.
- The SEK hit its best levels against the USD and Euro pairs following its better Q2 GDP data with the QoQ coming in unchanged compared to the decline of -0.4% expected. EUR/SEK tested 10.333 area while USD/SEK probed the 7.3230 level.
- Japanese economy had slipped into a record level of deflation, with core CPI falling 1.7% y/y in June. Dealers noting that the data encouraged yield-seeking investment flows out of Japan at month-end while the global risk appetite persist for the time being. USD/JPY probing near yesterday's intra-session high of 95.79 and EUR/JPY.
- In Energy/commodities: Kuwait is said to have shut its largest Min al-Ahmadi refinery (460K bpd) due to a problem with the water cooling system ||France's Total [FP.FR] Reported Q2 Net profit of €1.7B and in-line with consensus estimates of €1.7Be. Revenues were €31.4B above €27.2B estimates. Its Q2 Oil and Gas output was 2.18M bpd (-7.3% y/y) while its refinery use rate came in at 84% versus 88% year-ago levels. The company reiterated FY09 debt to equity target levels || NYMEX Aug crude moved lower from its Asian session highs of 67.78 to by $1.50 to test $66.20 in its electronic session.
- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds have performed strongly this morning amidst a modest sell off in equities. Ahead of US GDP reports there was little market reaction to the contradiction of better than expected Euro-zone unemployment and worse than expected CPI estimate . UK and German yield curves are in bull flattening mode tracking yesterdays move in Treasuries. Gilts have lead the way up on a cross market basis, with the yield on 10y hitting intraday lows below 3.88%. Three month Euribor fixed at a fresh record low of 0.893%
- (GE) German Jun Nominal Wholesale Sales Y/Y: -9.1%; Real Wholesale Sales Y/Y: -17.2%
- (SP) Spain May Current Account: -€4.99B v -€3.5B prior
- (CZ) Jun Preliminary Industrial output Y/Y: -12.3% v -17.0%e
- (TH) Thailand Jun Total Trade Balance: $939M v $2.3B prior; Current Account: $477.0M v $783Me
- (TH) Thailand Jun Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -7.8% v -9.5%e
- (SW) Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -6.2% v -6.7%e
- (NO) Norway May AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.2%e
- (NO) Norway Jun Credit Indicator Growth: 6.5% v 7.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jun PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -7.2% v -7.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Gov't Monthly Budget: -10.6B v -10.4B prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jul CPI estimate: -0.6% v -0.4%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jun Unemployment: 9.4% v 9.7%e, highest level since May 1999
- (IT) Italy Jul Preliminary CPI (NIC incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jul Preliminary CPI (EU Harmonized) M/M: -1.2% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.4%e
- (SZ) Swiss Jul KOF Leading Indicator: -0.99v -1.45e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities news overnight: In equities: Equity markets in Europe entered the last trading day of July on a negative footing. This position was in disregard to yesterday's positive run and the similar sentiments in NY and Asia. End of the month flows were joined with continued equity pressure following a further corporate earnings flow. Today's earnings included large cap names: British Airways [BAY.UK], Air France [AF.FR], Anglo American [AAL.UK], Vedanta [VED.UK], ENEL [ENEL.IT], ENI [ENI.IT], Total [FP.FR], Michelin [ML.FR] and Lafarge [LG.FR]. Earnings sentiment again proved mixed with the heavy oil names disappointing and trading to the downside. While both BA and Air France reported below expectations, continued losses seen at Air France drove those shares lower while BA traded higher. Guidance out of Lafarge, lowering its cement volume output for 2009, had bearish effects for the broad sector as the effects of lower construction and building projects rippled through the market. Following the equity open, shares pushed higher, through the unchanged mark and to their best trading range levels by 3:30EST. This movement was sharply cut short by better than expected preliminary Q2 GDP out of Sweden (the corresponding effect having a negative pull on the EUR/SEK cross). Markets looked ready to push higher at 5:00EST following the release of better than expected Euro-zone unemployment numbers, but were limited by a larger than expected decline in Euro-zone CPI. With a shortened US earnings list expected in the NY morning, markets have already begun to position themselves for the US advanced Q2 GDP release, seen at 8:30EST.
-In individual equities: Air France [AF.FR] Reports Q1 Net loss €426M v loss €202Me, Rev €5.2B v €6.5B y/y. Q1 capacity -4.7%, Load factor at 79.4% v 80.3% y/y. || Michelin [ML.FR] Reports H1 Net loss €119.0M v loss €273.3Me, Rev €7.13B v €7.1Be. || AngloAmerican [AAL.UK] Reports H1 underling Net $1.1B v $1.8Be, Rev $11.1B v $10.4Be. Net debt of $11.3 billion at 30 June 2009. || Total [FP.FR] Reports Q2 Net €1.7B v €1.7Be, R €31.4B v €27.2Be. Q2 Oil and Gas output 2.18M bpd (-7.3% y/y). || Lafarge [LG.FR] Reports Q2 Net €344M v €369Me, Rev €4.36B v €4.5Be. Based on the market situations observed in the second quarter, we have updated our outlook on volumes for the full year 2009. While the rate of decline is expected to slow in the second half of the year as compared to the first half, annual cement volumes in Lafarge's markets are expected to be down -4% to -8% overall, with significant differences between markets. || Continental [CON.GE] Supervisory board approves plans for capital increase of up to €1.5B, begins financing talks with creditors. || ENEL [ENEL.IT] Reports H1 Net €3.52B v €3.0Be, EBITDA €7.94B v €7.7Be. || ENI [ENI.IT] Reports Q2 Adj Net Profit €900M v €938Me, EBIT €2.55B v €2.5Be. ||
- Speakers: Former MOF official Sakakibara commented that opposition DPJ Bureaucrats would likely to keep overseeing FX policy if elected into power. Comments in response to the DPJ''s main campaign pledges to turn Japan's deeply entrenched, bureaucracy-led policy-making process into one led more by politicians. || Irish Fin Min Lenihan commented that Ireland had an approximate figure of discount on loans to be taken over by 'bad banks' || Chinese Fin Ministry noted that it would adopt a US style 3 and 9 month bill auction. China previously had a mixed bid system || EU approved German state toxic asset relief program for its banking system
-In Currencies: The USD managed to recover from its Asian lows but remained mixed in its overall tone against the major pairs ahead of the US GDP data later today. Despite yesterday's IMF comment about the Euro being 'overvalued' the EUR/USD hovering around the 1.41 area for the bulk of the session today and the trend continues to post higher lows and thus potentially higher highs over the next few weeks.
- The SEK hit its best levels against the USD and Euro pairs following its better Q2 GDP data with the QoQ coming in unchanged compared to the decline of -0.4% expected. EUR/SEK tested 10.333 area while USD/SEK probed the 7.3230 level.
- Japanese economy had slipped into a record level of deflation, with core CPI falling 1.7% y/y in June. Dealers noting that the data encouraged yield-seeking investment flows out of Japan at month-end while the global risk appetite persist for the time being. USD/JPY probing near yesterday's intra-session high of 95.79 and EUR/JPY.
- In Energy/commodities: Kuwait is said to have shut its largest Min al-Ahmadi refinery (460K bpd) due to a problem with the water cooling system ||France's Total [FP.FR] Reported Q2 Net profit of €1.7B and in-line with consensus estimates of €1.7Be. Revenues were €31.4B above €27.2B estimates. Its Q2 Oil and Gas output was 2.18M bpd (-7.3% y/y) while its refinery use rate came in at 84% versus 88% year-ago levels. The company reiterated FY09 debt to equity target levels || NYMEX Aug crude moved lower from its Asian session highs of 67.78 to by $1.50 to test $66.20 in its electronic session.
- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds have performed strongly this morning amidst a modest sell off in equities. Ahead of US GDP reports there was little market reaction to the contradiction of better than expected Euro-zone unemployment and worse than expected CPI estimate . UK and German yield curves are in bull flattening mode tracking yesterdays move in Treasuries. Gilts have lead the way up on a cross market basis, with the yield on 10y hitting intraday lows below 3.88%. Three month Euribor fixed at a fresh record low of 0.893%
The most successful Forex experts reveal their secrets! Do you think you might profit from their knowledge?
Are you fed up with the get rich quick scheme? Of everyone out there promising you hundreds of thousands within a few hours? Of useless systems and robots that are just crap? Are you disillusioned? So... What about learning pure trading wisdom from the best traders out there?
Every single successful person had to work really hard to achieve what he or she have now. But is there a way to get successful in Forex trading fast? Well, yes, there is, and you will soon find out how.
We have interviewed ten extremely successful Forex traders and "squeezed out" their knowledge about trading. We have asked them every possible question about their beginnings, their systems, motivation techniques, self-evaluation methods… and many more. But how this knowledge can help you with your trading?
Do you remember when you were back in school? Did you have a passionate and supportive teacher that made you interested in a certain subject? Everything was easy when you had a mentor like that. Well, this book brings you ten extremely successful mentors that are willing to teach you everything about Forex trading and to share their methods and techniques. Or maybe you think that you would be better on your own on this difficult market?
By the way, do the names like Joe Ross, Jeff Wilde or Phil Newton ring a bell? Those are some of the most famous traders and mentors around the globe. They made thousands people professional traders. They made thousands people rich.
Every single successful person had to work really hard to achieve what he or she have now. But is there a way to get successful in Forex trading fast? Well, yes, there is, and you will soon find out how.
We have interviewed ten extremely successful Forex traders and "squeezed out" their knowledge about trading. We have asked them every possible question about their beginnings, their systems, motivation techniques, self-evaluation methods… and many more. But how this knowledge can help you with your trading?
Do you remember when you were back in school? Did you have a passionate and supportive teacher that made you interested in a certain subject? Everything was easy when you had a mentor like that. Well, this book brings you ten extremely successful mentors that are willing to teach you everything about Forex trading and to share their methods and techniques. Or maybe you think that you would be better on your own on this difficult market?
By the way, do the names like Joe Ross, Jeff Wilde or Phil Newton ring a bell? Those are some of the most famous traders and mentors around the globe. They made thousands people professional traders. They made thousands people rich.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Trade With FXCM PLatform
Why Trade at FXCM?
FXCM's No Dealing Desk* aims to provide transparent and fair execution. Every trade is executed back to back with one of the world's premier banks or financial institutions, which compete to provide FXCM with bid and ask prices. The best spreads available to FXCM are streamed to you with a small markup, which is generally one pip or less for major currency pairs.
Lower Spreads
• Euro/US dollar spread is frequently 2 pips, British pound/dollar 3 pips
• Trade on rates provided to FXCM by multiple global banks
• FXCM's $500 billion in monthly volume drives price competition
• Fractional pip pricing facilitates the tightening of spreads even further
No Dealing Desk Execution
• No conflict of interest between broker and trader
• No dealer intervention in trades
• Price providers (Banks) do not see your stops, limits, and entry orders
• Competition reduces the potential for market manipulation by price providers
No Trading Restrictions
• Trade during breaking news
• Place entry orders anywhere—even inside the spread
• Scalp the market
• Rollover transparency—all amounts are displayed in advance
• Receive positive rolls at all margin levels
Trade WIth ETORO Platform
If you're new to forex, we think you'll love eToro because:
* It's Simple! The eToro forex platform is designed to make the online forex market understandable to traders on their first trade. You only need a $50 deposit to get started.
* It's Visual! The eToro forex software displays your trades using dynamic visualizations, so you can literally watch your trades go.
* It's Educational! Hone your forex trading craft by using our eToro's online forex tutorials, trading guides and unlimited practice mode with live forex rates.
If you're a forex trading expert, we think you'll love eToro because:
* It's User-Friendly! The eToro platform has a remarkably intuitive interface that enables you to forget about fumbling with bulky forex software and focus exclusively on your trades.
* It's Professional! The eToro forex software provides you with all the forex trading tools you need: online forex charts, graphs, financial updates, trading orders and leverages ranging from 1:10 to 1:400.
* It's Reliable! eToro is operated by leading online forex brokers who make sure that your forex trades are executed with precision and offer low spreads - as low as 2 pips.
* eToro is also a Community! We also think that you'll enjoy our various community features including public and private chats, a lively online forex forum, and our weekly prize bearing forex trading challenges.
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